--- title: "Is Jeremy Grantham Right Or Wrong About Bubbles (and Bitcoin)?" type: "post" post_id: "12438" slug: "is-jeremy-grantham-right-or-wrong-about-bubbles-and-bitcoin" canonical: "https://bombthrower.com/is-jeremy-grantham-right-or-wrong-about-bubbles-and-bitcoin/" markdown_url: "https://bombthrower.com/is-jeremy-grantham-right-or-wrong-about-bubbles-and-bitcoin.md" json_url: "https://bombthrower.com/is-jeremy-grantham-right-or-wrong-about-bubbles-and-bitcoin.json" txt_url: "https://bombthrower.com/is-jeremy-grantham-right-or-wrong-about-bubbles-and-bitcoin.txt" published: "2026-06-27T21:09:24+00:00" modified: "2026-06-28T05:15:38+00:00" author: "Mark E. Jeftovic" categories: - "Bitcoin" tags: site_name: "Mark E. Jeftovic is The Bombthrower" publisher: "" language: "en-US" generator: "easyPress AI Visibility" generator_version: "2.0.9" --- ![](https://bombthrower.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/jeremy-grantham-vs-amazon-vs-bitcoin.jpeg) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The data shows the opportunity cost of avoiding bubbles in the modern era. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jeremy Grantham built a career calling bubbles. With his AUM ranging from the 65B to 120B level over his career, he’s been fairly prescient about avoiding them on behalf of his clients, and in the process became a billionaire himself. In [a recent appearance on Diary of a CEO](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32u5T6lO8qk), he cautioned about Amazon’s 92% drop during the dotCom bust, and he’s now warning about the AI bubble (as are many others). In a now viral clip on CNBC, he got into it with Joe Kernan and laid into Bitcoin using all the usual objections: “no use case”, “headed to zero”, and “not worth a bucket of spit”. > At least it’s not just Bitcoiners getting into scraps! [pic.twitter.com/pfJyXM3ZFc](https://t.co/pfJyXM3ZFc) > > — JOEY (@JoeyTweeets) [June 26, 2026](https://x.com/JoeyTweeets/status/2070658084700062129?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) But if you actually look at the data, you would have been better off *holding through bubbles* instead of handing your wealth over to Grantham’s GMO Fund to protect you from them. *And this remains true vs. most assets and across nearly all time frames.* You can see for yourself in [this interactive widget I put together for the next Sovereign Capitalist](https://thesovereigncapitalist.io/was-jeremy-grantham-right-or-wrong/) newsletter (due out in a few days). Plug in an invetsment amount, pick an entry point: right before the DotCom bubble blew, or on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis, right on up into the pandemic: Grantham’s GMO *lagged everything* including simply indexing the S&P500. > Jeremy Grantham is making rounds sermonizing about Bitcoin and bubbles. > > But if you look at the actual data, anybody following his advice would have been a lot worse off, across nearly every time frame over the last 30 years. [pic.twitter.com/HgJenRBtsL](https://t.co/HgJenRBtsL) > > — Mark E. Jeftovic (@jeftovic) [June 27, 2026](https://x.com/jeftovic/status/2070926275049590982?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) **When The Monetary Physics Change** In the letter, I get into why this is the case: why are “the perma-bears” (in Grantham’s own words, and the title of his new book) may be looking at the wrong measure, and the wrong axis when it comes to figuring out what’s *overvalued* and what, if anything, is truly headed to zero (I’ll give you a hint: it’s not Space-X and it sure isn’t *Bitcoin)* but I’ll lay out the analogy here (which was admittedly cribbed from Alex Hormozi, who swiped it from Brian Johnson). Hormozi used it in the context of how I is changing the world. This is true, but it also applies to the inexorable debasement of the monetary layer through debasement. Here’s the analogy of “*when the physics change*“: A school of fish are swimming around in water. A few of them become experts at swimming. They train their entire lives, they practice every day, they study the expert swimmers of previous eras, and they analyze nearly every aspect of the water they inhabit: it’s PH levels, acidity, currents, flow – everything. They gain an intuitive feel for how even a slight variance in one factor impacts the others – they know “which way the current is going”. But over time, the water heats up – they may pick up on this, but they’re never quite prepared for what it means beyond a certain point. It’s the point that puts them wrong-footed, *the phase-shift:* the water evaporates – and now it’s gas. Steam. Setting aside for our purposes how this would fry the fish, imagine they’re still alive, but now they’re trying to apply everything they know about *swimming* in *water* to this new environment, which is gaseous, not liquid. They would be flailing and flapping around like the proverbial “fish out of water”. What happened? They were never wrong about their fluid dynamics. The physics changed and they had no model for the new reality. The measuring stick of fiat currency is the water that is boiling away. I’ve been saying it forever, *[it’s the denominator stupid.](https://bombthrower.com/its-the-denominator-stupid/)* People like Grantham don’t even look at it. Over the course of the Diary of a CEO interview I don’t think he mentions it once. In his [**“The Making of a Perma-Bear”**](https://amzn.to/4eUoruq) book, he mentions inflation in exactly three places, and always with respect to their effect on P/E multiples. In the third instance he only mentions to acknowledge that during the pandemic, multiples went the *opposite* direction he would have expected, given the higher inflation. [Go take a look at the data](https://thesovereigncapitalist.io/was-jeremy-grantham-right-or-wrong/), plug in some numbers and starting dates for yourself. You’ll see exactly what the phase shift looks like. More in this in the next edition of my premium newsletter [The Sovereign Capitalist](https://thesovereigncapitalist.io/coming-soon/). *You can get on the waiting list and members get an advance copy of my new book: [**The Blueprint: Survive and Thrive in an Overclocked Timeline.** ](https://thesovereigncapitalist.io/coming-soon/)* *Follow [me on X here.](https://x.com/jeftovic)*